ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia —(HornPost) Renewed clashes between Tigray forces and Ethiopia’s federal government are raising fears of a new war as tensions with Eritrea intensify.
Tensions are rising again in northern Ethiopia as clashes between forces linked to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Ethiopian federal forces threaten to undermine the fragile peace that ended the country’s devastating two-year Tigray war.
The renewed violence has raised concerns that Ethiopia could slide back into a broader conflict in the north, particularly as relations between Addis Ababa and neighboring Eritrea continue to deteriorate.
The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project (ACLED) said recent military activity indicates that fears of renewed conflict between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF have materialized. ACLED reported that fighting resumed in early August near the Ethiopia-Sudan border, followed by additional Tigrayan troop movements in parts of southern Tigray.
Tigray peace deal under pressure
The developments threaten the November 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, which ended the two-year war between the Ethiopian federal government and the TPLF.
In April and May, the TPLF moved to restore elements of its pre-war regional political administration, effectively challenging arrangements established under the peace process. Reuters reported that the move created rival political structures in Tigray and prompted renewed concerns about a return to war.
The situation has since become more complicated as military forces have mobilized in northern Ethiopia.
ACLED said the latest clashes involve Tigray Defense Forces and Ethiopian government forces, with disputed territories between Tigray and Amhara remaining a major source of tension.
Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions add to the danger
The crisis in Tigray is unfolding against a worsening relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
The two countries were once allies during the Tigray war, with Eritrean forces fighting alongside Ethiopian federal troops. But relations deteriorated after the war, particularly over Ethiopia’s repeated demands for reliable access to the Red Sea.
Eritrea has accused Ethiopia of pursuing territorial ambitions and destabilizing the region. In its latest statement, Eritrea accused Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government of escalating regional tensions and supporting groups seeking to undermine the Eritrean government. Ethiopia has made its own accusations against Eritrea, including claims that Eritrean forces and other actors are supporting armed groups inside Ethiopia.
The dispute is particularly sensitive because Eritrea controls the Red Sea ports of Assab and Massawa, while Ethiopia has no coastline.
Could the conflict spread?
Analysts warn that a renewed Tigray war would not necessarily remain confined to the region.
ACLED said Ethiopia’s northern crisis is linked to broader tensions involving Eritrea and other regional actors. The organization has also assessed that a direct Ethiopia-Eritrea war is not inevitable, despite the increasingly hostile rhetoric from both sides.
A renewed conflict could nevertheless have serious consequences for the wider Horn of Africa, including Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia and the Red Sea, particularly given the region’s existing political and security tensions.
For Ethiopia, the immediate challenge is to prevent localized clashes from developing into another full-scale war.
For Eritrea, the central concern remains Ethiopia’s pursuit of Red Sea access and what Asmara sees as potential threats to its sovereignty.
International concern grows
The United States has already taken measures against individuals it accused of undermining peace in Ethiopia. In June, Washington announced targeted visa restrictions against people linked to the TPLF whom it said were contributing to instability.
The international community is therefore facing renewed pressure to encourage dialogue between Addis Ababa, Tigrayan authorities and Asmara before the current military buildup develops into a larger confrontation.
The key question is whether the Pretoria peace agreement can withstand the renewed political and military tensions.
If it fails, Ethiopia could once again face a major conflict in Tigray — this time with the added risk of direct confrontation or proxy involvement involving Eritrea.
