HARGEISA, Somaliland (HornPost)— Israel and Turkey are expanding their strategic competition beyond Syria, with the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab and Horn of Africa emerging as key geopolitical arenas.
By Abdillahi Jama Ali – Qurus
Israel and Turkey Rivalry Expands to the Horn of Africa
The growing strategic rivalry between Turkey and Israel is no longer confined to Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean. Increasingly, the competition is extending toward the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Horn of Africa, a region that sits along one of the world’s most important maritime trade corridors.
The emerging geopolitical contest stretches from Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean through the Suez Canal, Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait to the Gulf of Aden and the Horn of Africa.
The Horn of Africa is therefore becoming increasingly important to a wider regional struggle for strategic access, maritime security, military partnerships, intelligence cooperation and political influence.
Turkey’s Strategic Position in Somalia
Turkey has established one of its strongest positions in the Horn of Africa through Somalia. Ankara’s military, security, economic and political ties with Mogadishu have given Turkey a significant presence along the western side of the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Turkey’s engagement includes military cooperation, security assistance, infrastructure investment and diplomatic relations with the Somali government. However, geography creates an important strategic distinction.
Mogadishu is politically significant, while Berbera is strategically positioned along the Gulf of Aden.
Why Berbera Matters
Berbera sits directly on the Gulf of Aden, facing Yemen and positioned close to the maritime gateway connecting the Gulf of Aden with the Red Sea.
Its location gives Somaliland strategic relevance within the broader Bab al-Mandab–Red Sea–Suez maritime corridor, particularly as international powers increasingly focus on shipping security and access to critical waterways. This geography helps explain why the Somaliland coastline has attracted growing international attention.
Could the Rivalry Reach the Horn of Africa?
The strategic competition between Turkey and Israel could increasingly have consequences for the Horn of Africa. A deeper Turkish presence in Somalia could potentially be accompanied by greater Israeli interest in security, intelligence and strategic partnerships elsewhere along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
This does not necessarily mean that the Horn of Africa will become a direct battlefield between Turkey and Israel. Instead, competition could emerge through ports, military access, intelligence networks, maritime security arrangements and political alliances.
The Horn offers something that Syria and Palestine cannot provide: a strategic position at the African gateway to the Red Sea.
For Turkey, deeper engagement in the region provides an opportunity to extend its influence from the Indian Ocean toward the Red Sea.
For Israel, security around the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden is increasingly connected to its broader strategic concerns, including maritime access and regional security.
Somaliland Faces Both Opportunity and Risk
For Somaliland, the changing geopolitical environment presents both opportunities and risks. The opportunity is clear. Its location along the Gulf of Aden gives Somaliland increasing strategic importance at a time when international powers are paying greater attention to the security of the Red Sea and its approaches.
The risk is equally significant. As regional and global powers compete for influence, the Horn of Africa could increasingly become an arena where competing strategic interests intersect.
Somaliland’s challenge will be to convert its geographic importance into economic investment, maritime security cooperation and diplomatic gains without becoming caught in the rivalries of larger regional powers.
The Strategic Line Does Not End in Syria
The most important lesson is that the strategic competition between Turkey and Israel should not be viewed only through the lens of Syria.
The geopolitical line extends southward through the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab and Gulf of Aden, reaching the Horn of Africa. As competition over maritime routes, ports and regional partnerships intensifies, the Somaliland coast is unlikely to remain a peripheral consideration.
The Horn of Africa is moving closer to the centre of a wider geopolitical contest—and Somaliland’s strategic coastline could become one of its most closely watched locations.
This analysis written By Abdillahi Jama Ali – Qurus, based in Hargeisa, Somaliland.
